AC Milan welcome Frosinone to the San Siro on Sunday afternoon in a match with serious implications at both ends of the Serie A table.

The Rossoneri are in need of wins to help secure a top-six spot and a return to European football next season. Meanwhile, the Canarini are desperately in need of points as they look to climb out of the relegation zone.

While the team faces an important run of fixtures, much of the focus surrounding Milan in recent days has been on a potential takeover, with Corriere dello Sport (h/t Football Italia) reporting that President Silvio Berlusconi is set to sell the club to a Chinese consortium.

However, while the possibility of a new owner is of long-term importance, head coach Cristian Brocchi and his players cannot afford to take their eye off the ball in the short term. The next three games will decide if they play in the UEFA Europa League next season or sit out continental competition altogether for a third consecutive year.

Recent form has been poor, with a 0-0 draw at home to Carpi followed up by a shocking 2-1 defeat away to Verona, who have since been relegated, on Monday.

After the latest loss, Brocchi was unable to hide his frustration, telling a post-match press conference, per Milan’s official website:

Today’s match leaves me feeling angry. I am disappointed with the performance and we have taken a step backwards. With the kind of character that I showed during my playing days, I will try and lead us out of this situation. The only solution I know is hard work.

While Milan are heavy favourites for this weekend’s clash, it is worth remembering they were also expected to defeat both Carpi and Verona. And, for added spice, Frosinone enter the fixture aware that defeat could spell the end for their survival hopes.

Currently five points separate Roberto Stellone’s side from Carpi in 17th, meaning that, with three games and nine points left on the table, they need every win they can get. Their quest begins this Sunday in the San Siro.

 

Date: Sunday, 1 May

Time: 2 p.m. BST (9 a.m. ET)

Venue: San Siro, Milan, Italy

TV Info: BT Sport ESPN (UK), beIN Sports (USA)

Live Stream: Bet365.com

 

Form Guide

Verona 2-1 Milan

Milan 0-0 Carpi

Sampdoria 0-1 Milan

Milan 1-2 Juventus

Atalanta 2-1 Milan

 

Frosinone 0-2 Palermo

Chievo 5-1 Frosinone

Verona 1-2 Frosinone

Frosinone 0-1 Inter Milan

Genoa 4-0 Frosinone

 

Team News

Since Brocchi took his position as head coach of Milan, he has used a 4-3-1-2 shape with either Giacomo Bonaventura or Keisuke Honda playing in the trequartista role behind the strikers. However, with the former out with a hamstring injury, the Japanese playmaker will resume this position against Frosinone.

Andrea Bertolacci is also unfit to take part in this weekend’s game, so Jose Mauri will likely continue in the midfield trident alongside Juraj Kucka and Riccardo Montolivo.

Defensively, Alex should return to the back four, taking his place as right-sided centre-back next to Alessio Romagnoli. The Brazilian has been remarkably consistent this season, and his return should add solidity to a defence that struggled in their defeat to Verona on Monday.

One of Milan’s major difficulties this campaign has been opening up defensive opposition, an issue that has played a large part in their dropping points to lowly Serie A teams. Against sides that see a point as a positive result, the Rossoneri have had trouble creating scoring opportunities.

This issue should not be quite so prevalent against Frosinone, with Stellone preferring to set his outfit up in a fairly attack-minded 4-4-2 system, with one of the two strikers dropping deep situationally. While this shape and mindset is brave, it has led to their possessing the worst goals conceded record in the league.

Their more positive approach and leaky defence is, theoretically, good news for Milan, as it should offer them greater space to attack and subsequently lessen their difficulties with a lack of movement and effective combination play.

Honda’s role could be important here, with his freedom to roam between the lines offering an outlet for the Rossoneri to progress the ball into the final third, behind the Canarini midfield.

Frosinone will be without Danilo Soddimo, meaning Luca Paganini will take up the left-sided wide role in midfield. He could be the sole penetrative force for his team in this area, as his team-mates Mirko Gori, Paolo Sammarco and Alessandro Frara are far more focused on defensive matters.

Up front, Daniel Ciofani will provide an aerial threat should Stellone opt for a more direct route, with the nippy Federico Dionisi playing slightly behind him as a second striker, using his pace and direct running to trouble Milan’s defence.

 

Predicted Lineups

Milan (4-3-1-2): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Ignazio Abate, Alex, Alessio Romagnoli, Mattia De Sciglio; Juraj Kucka, Riccardo Montolivo, Jose Mauri; Keisuke Honda; Carlos Bacca, Mario Balotelli

Unavailable: M’Baye Niang, Andrea Bertolacci, Giacomo Bonaventura (injury)

Frosinone (4-4-2): Nicola Leali; Matteo Ciofani, Adriano Russo, Leonardo Blanchard, Roberto Crivello; Alessandro Frara, Mirko Gori, Paolo Sammarco, Luca Paganini; Daniel Ciofani, Federico Dionisi

Unavailable: Raman Chibsah (suspended), Danilo Soddimo (injured)

 

Players to Watch

Milan’s defeat to Verona was embarrassing, but—as discussed in this post—it could have been even worse were it not for the performance of their 17-year-old goalkeeper, Gianluigi Donnarumma.

He made several early stops, one denying Giampaolo Pazzini in a one-on-one, to prevent the Gialloblu from taking the lead, and when the game was level at 1-1, he pulled off save after save to keep his side on equal terms.

According to Opta Paolo, “Over the last 16 Serie A match-days, only Juventus (3) have conceded fewer goals than AC Milan (14).” A large part of the Rossoneri’s defensive record is down to Donnarumma, whose excellent reactions and increasing air of authority offer a sound last line of defence.

If Frosinone are to find the net past the young ‘keeper, Dionisi will no doubt have a part to play. According to WhoScored.com, no other Canarini player has been involved in more Serie A goals than he this season, with eight goals and four assists in total.

A hard worker and an aggressive runner, the 28-year-old attacker is a tricky proposition for opposition defenders. His versatility also enables him to be effective on either flank or through the middle, making him a useful player to have should Stellone opt for a change of system.

 

Key Battle

Daniel Ciofani will star alongside Dionisi up front for Frosinone, though he provides starkly contrasting attributes. At 6’3 1/2″, he is a genuine threat from set pieces due to his height, strength and heading ability. Indeed, per Squawka.com, the only two Serie A forwards to have a stronger aerial success rate are Leonardo Pavoletti of Genoa and Edin Dzeko of Roma.

Furthermore, Ciofani’s hold-up play enables him to bring team-mates into the game. The 30-year-old, whose brother Matteo plays alongside him and is also set to start on Sunday, uses his physical attributes effectively for the team, and Milan’s centre-back pairing have a tough job on their hands to combat this.

In this respect, Alex will be particularly important. He is a forceful presence, and he, rather than the slightly weaker, less experienced Romagnoli, will likely be handed the task of keeping Ciofani in check.

 

Odds

Milan: 100/303

Frosinone: 8/1

Draw: 17/4

All odds via Odds Shark.

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