As the dust settles on the 2015-16 season and players (well, some) and coaches take a break over summer, a period of reflection and analysis will see that Atletico Madrid had a very good season overall, falling short of incredible success only by fractions.

One of the biggest plus points in their campaign was the emergence of Saul Niguez as an undisputed starter in the first team, an academy graduate who has enjoyed loan spells away and a year or more as a squad option at the Vicente Calderon, before finally making good on his outrageous talent and showing he could bring consistency to his game as well as ability.

Inevitably, after impressing in high-profile games, he has come to the attention of other clubs and national media outlets, which in turn has led to transfer rumours surrounding his future. The most prominent side linked with a move for him has been Manchester United, as reported by the Daily Mail among others, but Saul signed a new contract at Atleti in May that runs until 2021.

It means his release clause will have been raised significantly, to around £54 million according to the Mail, but how high is the true worth of Saul after a campaign in which he excelled in La Liga and helped put some of Europe’s toughest sides to the sword?

 

Game time and importance

Until November, he was still a bench option for Diego Simeone. With Oliver Torres getting the nod to start the season as Arda Turan’s direct replacement, and Yannick Carrasco finding his feet and form soon afterward, Saul had to be patient to get chances when injuries struck elsewhere.

The turning point in his season was a broken leg for Tiago, which occurred in mid-December. Saul had started the last three games before that one, performing well both from the right side and centrally, and Tiago’s sudden absence opened up a regular spot in the middle—and with Koke underperforming at that time, Saul was ideally placed to take advantage.

From the end of November until the end of the season, he played in every game but one, played the full 90 in 20 out of 26 games and, over the course of the entire campaign, featured in every single UEFA Champions League match from the group stage to the final itself.

His importance to the team after the first third of ’15-16 cannot be underlined enough.

Tactically he is a perfect fit for Simeone’s team, understanding when to press high, when to tuck inside and when to offer support to the front line; his running power eclipses that of workhorse Gabi, and he was a vital goalscoring addition to the team, too, netting nine overall, bettered only by strikers Antoine Griezmann and Fernando Torres.

Despite not playing much of the league campaign until late November, Saul ended the season as one of Atleti’s first names on the team sheet and only seven players managed more game time than his 3,650 minutes—players who are associated with being Simeone staples such as Diego Godin, Juanfran, Filipe Luis, Griezmann, Gabi and Koke, along with goalkeeper Jan Oblak.

 

Future prospects

Importance to the team and the consistency shown in games is an important part of assessing the value of a player, but equally, given Saul is still only 21 years old, it must be taken into account just how high his performance level could go.

Although most of his starting game time has so far come from the sides of midfield in Atleti’s narrow 4-4-2, more and more often they switch in-game to a 4-3-3, where he is inevitably one of the players pushed inside to central midfield.

His balance of technical and physical proficiency gives Atleti the platform they want to remain defensively strong, yet be able to hurt teams going the other way, too. Neither of those characteristics is going to see anything but an upward swing over the coming seasons, as Saul improves his anticipation and reading of the game, his timing of runs forward and decision-making over when to release possession.

In truth, he’s already incredibly intelligent in that last trait, decision-making, as dribbling constantly with the ball—although as he showed against Bayern, among others, he’s perfectly capable of doing so—doesn’t really fall within his remit.

Often it is the mental side of the game that younger players struggle to deal with, but Saul is beyond his years in that regard.

On the international scene, he should already have made his way into the Spanish squad and 100 per cent deserves to have been included in the UEFA Euro 2016 squad, but Vicente del Bosque opted against taking him, for reasons best known to himself.

There’s no doubt, however, that Del Bosque’s successor can build the next Spain midfield with Saul as a part of it, if not an immediate starter then certainly to be integrated into plans over the course of World Cup qualifying.

 

Comparisons and market

Transfer fees can swing and vary wildly, depending on the clubs and agents involved and which leagues they are moving from and to.

Renato Sanches, for example, has just joined Bayern Munich from Benfica at age 19, for €35 million, potentially rising to €80 million depending on the player hitting milestones that include being named FIFA’s World Player of the Year, per CNN.

Marcelo Brozovic, on the other hand, a Croatia international and a star at Inter Milan at 23 years of age, could leave this summer, per Corriere dello Sport (h/t the Mirror), for around £16m (€20m). Andre Gomes of Valencia has been suggested to be rated at €45m (per ESPN FC) this summer, and Mateo Kovacic joined Real Madrid last summer for €32m.

With Jorge Mendes as his agent, it’s probably safe to assume any move from Saul in the future would be on the upper scale of fees.

In terms of game time and quality, Saul this year was awarded the Revelation of La Liga, as reported by Marca, performing far better than names including Aymeric Laporte, Paco Alcacer or team-mate Carrasco.

Playing a pivotal role in the run to the European final also eclipses the achievements of those outside La Liga such as Raheem Sterling, Breel Embolo, Kingsley Coman, Julian Draxler, Ross Barkley, Anthony Martial and even Paulo Dybala. All those players are in the 19-23 age bracket, and all have either been linked with moves or have moved clubs in the last year for huge fees.

With a new contract behind him, Atleti’s status as a powerhouse club in Europe at present and his own limitless potential, there is zero reason to think any initial valuation of Saul should be less than €35 million. In an age of add-ons, emphasis on youth reaching its potential and protection of investments in the form of buy-back agreements, third-party ownership on registration and other factors, that fee could easily rise past €60 million for Saul…and that’s this summer.

A year from now when he’s shining in La Liga once more and has broken into the Spain setup, that initial figure will only increase. He’s one of Spain’s best and will show that over the coming years at Atletico.

 

Follow @karlmatchett

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