So little was expected of the Italy national team as the 2016 European Championship began.

The Azzurri were without two of their best midfielders due to injury, and their forward line was a hodgepodge of journeymen and youngsters unproven at international level.  

The overall talent level of the final squad was considered one of the worst in the country’s history, and the imminent departure of manager Antonio Conte, bound for Chelsea next season, was expected to be a distraction.

Even though they possessed what was probably the stoutest defence in the tournament, they were expected by many to be the big flop of the competition.  In a group that contained a major pre-tournament favourite in Belgium and a Zlatan Ibrahimovic-led Sweden team, some even expected them to crash out at the group stage for the third time in their last four major tournaments.

With two rounds of play in Group E now complete, the script has certainly been flipped.

Conte was roundly criticized in the week before the tournament for keeping players like Eder and Emanuele Giaccherini on the final roster, leaving younger players like Jorginho at home and not even considering players like Domenico Berardi for the preliminary roster.  

The fact that the No. 10 shirt went to Thiago Motta only made the howling louder.  The re-emergence of his old standby, the 3-5-2, renewed talk of him being tactically inflexible.

But so far, Conte has defied his critics.  Some of the most controversial inclusions on his roster have made some of the most important contributions.  His tactics, considered by some to not be viable for the modern international game, have held up.  Italy have some very plain weaknesses, but the team that was expected to struggle to get out of the group have won it with a game to spare.

We’ll start with the positives, and in doing that, the defence must be mentioned first.

The back line has been lifted whole cloth from Conte‘s former club Juventus.  Goalkeeper and captain Gianluigi Buffon has been his typically excellent self when called upon—although he has not been called upon all that much.

The Azzurri have only allowed three shots on target in their first two games, all of them against Belgium in the opener.  That speaks to the incredible work done by the so-called BBC—no, not Real Madrid‘s version, but the Juve trio of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini.

The trio have played together for so long—five-and-a-half years, to be exact—that they can practically read each other’s thoughts.  Against Belgium, they constantly frustrated the Red Devils by getting into passing lanes and interrupting buildup play.  

Chiellini marked star striker Romelu Lukaku completely out of the game.  There was a nervy moment or two near the match’s end, but at the end of the night, Belgium never truly looked like they were going to score.

On Friday, Sweden were simply neutralized.  The interplay between the three centre-backs was so good that man-marking Ibrahimovic became unnecessary.  They constantly handed the big Swede off between the three of them and stifled their buildup play so effectively that Zlatan was often found dropping deep into midfield just to receive the ball.  When he played farther up front, the back line caught him offside.

That held the game scoreless long enough for the Italians to break the deadlock through one of the unlikeliest sources.

One of the most controversial of Conte‘s call-ups, Eder had only scored once since he moved from Sampdoria to Inter Milan in January.  Observers wondered why a more in-form player wasn’t chosen.

They ended up eating their words when the Brazil-born striker took a headed pass from Simone Zaza, cut in hard and slammed the ball past Swedish ‘keeper Andreas Isaksson.

This was the continuation of a trend for Conte.  Apart from Eder, one of his other most puzzling selections, Giaccherini, has proved decisive in the tournament.  

The diminutive midfielder looked to be destined for an early hook on Monday against Belgium—but a goal that started as an excellent long ball from Bonucci vindicated Giaccherini‘s spot in the starting XI. The 31-year-old has played the full 90 minutes in both matches, playing as one of Conte‘s box-to-box players.

As positive as things have been, though, Conte still has a crack to paper over: his midfield.

The middle of the park is clearly the weakest phase of Italy’s game.  It isn’t helping Conte that his two best midfielders, Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti, missed out on France due to knee and hernia injuries, respectively.

In their absence, Conte has had to come up with ways to create chances.  The players that have manned the midfield for the first two games—Giaccherini, Marco Parolo and Daniele De Rossi—will all run for days and have been good defensive contributors, but they aren’t a creative force.  Indeed, the best passer on the team now is probably Bonucci.

The centre-back tried several times on Friday to replicate the pass that cleaved open the Belgian defence for Giaccherini‘s opener on Monday, but the Swedes looked wise to it.  He can still make that pass and trigger other attacks from the back, but someone in the midfield has to step up to supplement him.

This lack of creativity has been manifest in the number of opportunities Italy have managed to create.  They’ve managed to take only 20 shots this tournament—a number Belgium nearly exceeded in game one alone.  Spain and France have both taken 36 shots in their first two games, Germany has 34.  Of the so-called big teams in the competition, Italy’s attack has seen by far the fewest opportunities in front of goal.

The silver lining here is that, for the most part, the Italians are making their shots count.  Nine of those 20 shots have found the target.  Three of those have been goals.  Two more would have found the back of the net were it not for Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who denied both Graziano Pelle and Ciro Immobile with the kind of save that only a handful of ‘keepers today can make.

With their midfield unable to match the output of their more elite competitors, being clinical is key.  The Azzurri have been so thus far, but all it takes is one cold spell up front for the goals to dry up completely—putting even more pressure on the men in defence to be as perfect as they have been so far.

Conte has certainly proved his doubters wrong thus far.  Every move he’s made has come good, from keeping Giaccherini and Eder in the lineup to his inspired substitution of Zaza for Pelle against Sweden, which added just enough pace up front to unbalance the Swedish defence and eventually punch through.

But this is not a perfect team by any means.  The midfielders are still struggling to create, and if they come up against a top-of-the-line midfield like those of France, led by Paul Pogba, or Spain, led by Andres Iniesta, they could very well be overwhelmed in the middle of the park and fall heavily onto the back three.

But that back three have shown they can shoulder quite a lot of weight.  Going as deep into the tournament as Italy did four years ago will obviously require a lot of things to go exactly right, but stranger things have happened at the Euros.

The 2004 Greece side that won the whole tournament provided the road map for such a victory.  With a defence as solid as Italy’s, the Azzurri can beat anyone in the field—so long as they manage to pot a goal or two at the other end.

All in all, the first part of the group phase has been very positive, in no small part thanks to Conte himself.  

As the knockout stages beckon, it remains to be seen whether he can do enough to shore up his weaknesses.  If he can do that and outscheme his more talented opponents, Italy could very well cause one of the biggest upsets in the history of world football.

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